2017年8月23日 星期三

HLF:Ackman的致命一擊

mikeon88 發表於 2014-7-22 09:52  

Herbalife Ltd shares plunge as Bill Ackman pledges to expose ‘incredible fraud’ on Tuesday
昨天大跌13%
Ackman周二要提出證明HLF是老鼠會,讓它關門,
精彩了。

美股的F再生案要上演了


mikeon88 發表於 2014-7-22 16:20  

Ackman桑2012年12月放空HLF 10億美元,成本在40美元,
當時即大跌過一次,
後來又漲得更高。

之後把空單改成選擇權,
我不懂得的是賣權沒被軋嗎 ?
賣權可以擺這麼久嗎 ? rollover ?

更不懂一個基金經理人賭這麼大,
對他的基金是安全的嗎 ?

Ackman說,這次他是賭上整個職業生涯了。


多米尼克 發表於 2014-7-22 17:15  


So...免驚 ?




mikeon88 發表於 2014-7-23 07:36  


演講之後,HLF大漲25%,加倍奉還,
Ackman GG 了。




mikeon88 發表於 2014-7-23 07:55  


投資首重避開風險,
Ackman桑因自己的偏見,將基金陷入絕境,
實在很不該。


polyperry 發表於 2014-7-23 08:34  


Short to "the end of the earth"...有這麼嚴重嗎 ?
Ackman我執好重...像陷入無限迴圈...

So far, Ackman has racked up millions in paper losses on his bet. He has yet to break even on his short. He's said that he will take this short to "the end of the earth."


joe052 發表於 2014-7-23 08:40  

昨天晚上買完了110股的HLF,然後就去睡覺了,
沒想到一大早起來報酬率就有25%,
真是驚喜刺激啊。
不過也有點恐怖,幸好是往上而不是往下。

感謝Michael無私的分享。



mikeon88 發表於 2015-3-13 07:13  


美國政府調查Ackman操縱HLF股價
哈哈哈~反而是Ackman桑被調查




mikeon88 發表於 2015-3-18 16:46 





mikeon88 發表於 2015-3-19 14:57  


A lawsuit accusing Herbalife of being a pyramid scheme has been dismissed
CHRISTOPHER WEBER, ASSOCIATED PRESS
MAR. 19, 2015, 12:22 AM  


mikeon88 發表於 2015-3-24 10:05



Ackman桑買了10億美元賣權,

以15倍槓桿算,權利金約6,700萬(=10/15)美元。
賣權買在48美元,
加上調查成本和遊說議員,成本為35美元。

HLF股價漲到51.4美元(=48x1.07)賣權即賠光,
屆時將損失51.4/35-1=47%,
6,700萬美元x47%/7%=4.5億美元

Ackman桑身價15億美金


參閱:HLF、NUS:直銷公司



mikeon88 發表於 2017-8-21 20:33  


6億美元買回庫藏股@60-68美元 (1/10股數)
2年內Icahn可能會把它100%買下市。
Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) commences a self-tender offer to buy up to $600M of its common stock at $60 - 68 per share. For each share tendered, investors will receive a non-transferable contractual contingent value right (CVR) that will pay out if the company is acquired in a go-private transaction within two years. The tender offer will expire on September 19 at 5:00 pm ET.
The company says it was recently in discussions with an investor (appears to be Carl Icahn) regarding a deal that could have led to the company going private. The talks ended on August 16.
CFO John DeSimone says, Our Board and management team are committed to enhancing shareholder value and we believe todays action is just one more step in meeting this goal. We have already acquired during 2017 approximately $299 million of our shares on the open market under our current $1.5 billion share repurchase plan, and we believe this tender offer provides us an efficient way to buy back additional shares at an attractive price.”
In connection with the tender offer, the company inked an agreement with Mr. Icahn under which he (and his affiliates) agreed not to increase his ownership above 50% unless he goes all in and acquires 100%.


mikeon88 發表於 2017-8-21 20:53

依坎大概想軋艾克曼的空,有趣了!

6億美元買回庫藏股@60-68美元,約1/10股數,
50%股數在依坎手上,
等於買回20%流通在外股數,
加上公司派持股,
浮額不多了,艾克曼挫列等。


mikeon88 發表於 2017-8-23 19:07  


http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-rally-james-clapper-2017-8

Herbalife has a plan that could squeeze hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman
Joe Ciolli

Bill Ackman would be right to be worried about his Herbalife short following the company's decision to do a Dutch auction.Reuters / Shannon Stapleton
Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman's short position in Herbalife is looking awfully shaky.
First and foremost, the company's surging stock — up 11% over two days after a report that it held talks to go public — has cost the Ackman-led Pershing Square Capital Management roughly $115 million on a mark-to-market basis, according to data compiled by financial analytics provider S3 Partners.
And Ackman personally could be in for more pain due to Herbalife's decision to execute a so-called "modified Dutch auction," through which the company will buy back $600 million of shares at $60 to $68 a pop. Beyond that, all shareholders who sell back their stock will get an addition cash payment if Herbalife is acquired at a higher price than the auction range sometime in the next two years.
The buyback of 8.8 million to 10 million shares could actually end up squeezing Ackman out of some of his shorts, which he started accumulating five years ago while accusing Herbalife of operating as a pyramid scheme. S3 estimates that if the Dutch auction is fully tendered, Ackman could face 3 million to 5 million share loan recalls. After all, he makes up roughly 75% of the company's short interest.
But it doesn't end there. Once the number of Herbalife shares available to be loaned plummets following the auction, the cost to borrow the company's stock will "increase dramatically" from around 2% into the 10% to 40% area, according to S3.
So to what extent will that hurt Ackman's wallet? He currently pays about $63,000 a day in financing costs, but that could skyrocket to $300,000 to $1.2 million a day once the auction is complete, S3 says.
Long story short, the Dutch auction will hit Ackman from two angles: loan recalls and financing costs.

Your move, Bill.

艾克曼融券若面臨標借,借券成本將從今2%飇升到10-40%,
一天6萬3千美元激增到30萬-120萬美元。

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