撿菸屁股是更難的選股方法

weyzhiro 發表於 2013-8-18 15:25  

忘了說，我的入圍名單是台股所有的股票。
只要跌到我的價位我就會買，每檔我都會看 !!

mikeon88 發表於 2013-8-19 08:48  

葛拉罕是這樣教的嗎 ?
若是，他何必寫書教人怎麼選股 !


weyzhiro 發表於 2013-8-19 10:25  

總要有人跟你挑戰才有樂趣 !!

mikeon88 發表於 2013-8-19 10:29  

這句話證明挑戰失敗了

weyzhiro 發表於 2013-8-19 10:34  

別這麼快下結論 !!

mikeon88 發表於 2013-8-19 10:45  

你根本不懂得葛拉罕，
撿菸屁股是更難的選股方法，
從好學生中選會考上台大的簡單，
還是從壞學生中挑 ?

撿菸屁哪裡是光看股價跌到淨值底下1/3這麼簡單，
還要知道公司是否真有轉機 ?
這一點從同學過去的討論中完全看不到。
想借葛拉罕來挑戰 ? 同學該更用功才行，
挑戰失敗了還不知。

mikeon88 發表於 2013-8-19 10:59  

建議同學不妨舉幾個例子，
看看哪些雞蛋水餃股從什麼地方可以看出有轉機 ?
同學不是登過葛拉罕的幾大原則嗎 ?
怎麼一直不見同學套用過，為何 ?

weyzhiro 發表於 2013-8-19 11:33  

一直在套用 !!
不用看轉機 !!
看股價淨值比 !!
市場終究會把股價推升到淨值附近甚至高於淨值 !!
你看得到的股價淨值比0.66以下的標的都適用 不用刻意挑選 !!

mikeon88 發表於 2013-8-19 11:39  

葛拉罕不只看這一點


Josephchu0616 發表於 2013-8-19 17:11  

葛拉漢早年（1930代）使用一種方法叫NCAV(net current asset value) approach，他的方法如下：
1. 無選股限制 
2. 2/3 (67%)net current asset value 。非book value 而是current asset - (total liabilities + preferred stock)
3. 買30 - 100支股票分散風險(菸屁股要撿很多支）
4. 如果該公司過去有賠錢紀錄就應把買進價設的更低
5. 股東權益大於負債
6. 漲50%或2年到了即賣出(我猜會用67%就是希望至少漲回net current asset value時可賺50%）

這是我找到的二手資料，作者說出處是1934年版的"Security Analysis"，我沒看過這本書，所以不敢保証是正確的。希望有看過這本書的同學確認一下。
67% 的NCAV比67%的book value嚴格許多，只能以67%的(現金+應收+庫存)-(所有負債+preferred stock)價格買進。

我想以葛拉漢身處大蕭條時代，應該不可能用67%的book value去買股票。
http://www.aaii.com/computerized-investing/article/benjamin-graham-s-net-current-asset-value-approach.mobile
Philosophy and StyleThe Graham net current asset value approach is one of the oldest documented stock selection methodologies, dating back to the 1930s. Net current asset value, or NCAV, looks at current assets minus total liabilities and preferred stock. Graham also termed NCAV a company’s “liquidation value.” His rationale was that this was the minimum value a company would be able to garner if its assets were sold off. Graham purchased large numbers (from 30 to as many as 100) “bargain” issues to limit the risk of any one individual issue.
Universe of Stocks
No restrictions. By their nature, however, the stocks typically passing this screen are small-capitalization stocks, or even micro-caps.
Primary Criteria
Bargain price with a margin of safety: Price no more than two-thirds the company’s net current asset value.
Secondary Factors

“Reasonably satisfactory” earnings record and prospects: Companies that are losing money or have an erratic earnings history are likely to see their intrinsic value decline, making them less undervalued or potentially overvalued.
“Sound financial condition”: As a test for financial strength, Graham suggests looking for companies with total stockholder’s equity (common and preferred equity) greater than the total of current liabilities and long-term debt.
Stock Monitoring and When to Sell

Graham held large numbers of companies trading below their net current asset value to mitigate individual company risk, suggesting as many as 30. His Graham-Newman fund held as many as 100 of these issues at a time.
When he bought a stock trading at 67% of its net current asset value, he would hold it until he had a 50% gain on it or until he had held it for two years.

mikeon88 發表於 2013-8-19 18:23  

魔法書40頁：
「這三位大師對於價值的定義也全然不同，葛拉漢比較接近淨值的觀念，他主張要在淨流動資產（＝流動資產－流動負債）以下的價位買進股票。這是十分保守的觀念，那是因為他處於1929年經濟大恐慌的時代，當時的股票常跌到本益比4倍以下，葛拉漢被市場修理過，所以才會這麼保守，現在可能不容易等到這麼低的價位。」


mikeon88 發表於 2013-8-19 19:42 

看葛拉罕的選股原則，再和巴菲特的比較，
就知道老巴是青出於藍，勝於藍，
層次上比衪的老師高出太多了。