2012年8月27日 星期一

融資的人最初都是信誓旦旦

From: 歐密碼
發表於 2012-8-28 00:26

我自己的房子先前設定房貸部分是500萬,
現在還到剩下房貸200萬,
想試著在下次GDP低點時
(明年沒機會了,等2014再看看),
把先前還掉的300萬再借出來拿到股市中投資,
因為公教利率都不高(1.8~3%),
即使500萬本息攤還,大約4萬左右尚可負擔,
不到遍地黃金我應該也不會全押,
想說這樣應該和MIKE說的「不要融資,不要借錢玩股票」,
不太一樣吧 !?


From: mikeon
發表於 2012-8-28 07:41

每個融資的人最初都是信誓旦旦
會很小心,等低點再進場,
而且一定會停損,
都是這樣開始的

很多同學都說,
再來一次4千點一定會進來大買,
問題是買股票不是每一筆都能買在4千,
而是跌到6千時就誤以為低點,就進場了 

等跌到4千時,
融資的人早已不堪套牢或瀕於斷頭的壓力而陣亡了

2012年8月25日 星期六

技術指標背離代表什麼意思 ?

今天有位同學問我 ,
技術指標背離代表什麼意思 ?

技術指標設定下限為 0 ,
股價再怎麼跌,指標最低跌到 0 ,
不會變負的 ,
所以跌到後來指標就鈍化,
即所謂的技術指標背離。

這是公式設定必然的道理,
而非隱含了什麼不為人知的市場轉變。

只要把下限拿掉,
讓下跌可以跌到負的或無限,
就不會出現指標背離。

數學不太差的人都能理解這個道理。

參閱:技術指標是倒果為因

2012年8月16日 星期四

2012-08-13 可口可樂分割 1 股為 2 股

底下貼文摘自宥聰桑的部落格
http://joechenus.pixnet.net/blog/post/39481258

2012-08-13 可口可樂分割 1 股為 2 股











分割前股數







分割後股數 (2天後資料才會更正)






美股分割之後連同前幾年的股數也一起變多,
這跟台股的除權僅自該年之後股數才變多不同。

2012年8月14日 星期二

2Q12波克夏大幅調整持股

2Q12波克夏大幅減碼 JNJ -64﹪、PG -19﹪、KFT -25﹪、INTC賣光、IR賣光、GE -26%、UPS -82%、V -27%、CVS -25﹪

增加持股 PSX、NOV、VIA.B、BK、DTV、WFC、IBM、LMCA、LEE

「National-Oilwell 是一家設計,生産和銷售機床和設備,營銷用於石油和天然氣鑽探和生産的維護,修理和運作產品。公司的機器和設備包括絞車,泥泵和電動轉環,這些都是鑽探油井氣井的鑽塔的主要機械組成部件。許多部件是專門為海洋,偏遠地區和深層地面鑽探應用而設計的。」...Quote123











「紐約銀行是一銀行控股公司和世界最大的財政機構之一。他們對全世界提供對個人、小型和中型企業、跨國公司、財政機構、政府提供全面性金融服務。其產品和服務劃分為五類: 證券服務和全球性付款服務、客戶服務和財產管理、公司銀行業務、全球性市場和零售銀行業務。」...Quote123











「李氏企業公司(LEE ENTERPRISES, INC.)是地區新聞、資產及廣告服務的主要發行業者。公司報紙的發行量達到每日160萬份,週日版更多達190萬份,每日接觸逾400萬名讀者。公司的線上網站每一吸引1200萬人次。」...Quote123













http://www.cnbc.com/id/48661464

Buffett's Berkshire Slashes Stock Holdings
Published: Tuesday, 14 Aug 2012 | 4:32 PM ET  
By: Alex Crippen
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway did a lot of selling this spring, slashing its holdings in a trio of consumer product companies.

Most notably, it reduced its holdings of Johnson & Johnson [JNJ  68.64     0.18  (+0.26%)   ] by almost 19 million shares to 10.3 million shares as of June 30.

That's a drop of 64 percent compared to its holdings just three months before.

The shares that were sold are worth almost $1.3 billion at the stock's current price, leaving a stake worth $708 million.

In another large cut reported in the company's 13-F filing with the SEC, Berkshire reduced its holdings of Procter & Gamble [PG  66.73     0.25  (+0.38%)   ] by 19 percent, or about $910 million.  It held 59.6 million shares as of the end of June.  They're currently worth $3.97 billion and are still one of Berkshire's biggest holdings.

Kraft Foods [KFT  40.90     -0.10  (-0.24%)   ] was also cut dramatically, with a 25 percent reduction worth $784 million. Berkshire's 58.8 million shares are now worth $2.4 billion. (Read More: Berkshire's Biggest Holdings)

Some other big names were also targeted, although the dollar amounts aren't as big.

Berkshire eliminated its 7.745 million share stake in Intel [INTC  26.48     -0.21  (-0.79%)   ], worth over $204 million.

It almost entirely got rid of its relatively small Ingersoll-Rand [IR  44.71    -0.32  (-0.71%)   ] holding, chopping it by 97 percent, or around $28 million.

Also cut: General Electric [GE  20.94     -0.05  (-0.24%)   ]. That stake was reduced by 36 percent to just over 5 million shares, a drop of about $58 million.



It wasn't all selling.

Berkshire added a relatively large stake now worth about $1 billion in Phillips 66 [PSX  39.93     -0.22  (-0.55%)   ]. It held 27,163,918 shares as of June 30.

National Oil Well Varco [NOV  76.26     -0.21  (-0.27%)   ] is another addition. That holding of 2.8 million shares is worth almost $216 million.

Berkshire also more than quadrupled its stake in Viacom [VIA.B  50.36     -0.16  (-0.32%)   ] to 6.8 million shares from 1.6 million. Those holdings are now worth about $335 million.

It also more than tripled its holdings of Bank of New York Mellon [BK  22.15     -0.09  (-0.4%)   ] to 18.7 million shares from 5.6 million.  That stake is now worth almost $290 million.

Berkshire also reported increases for DaVita [DVA  97.87     1.49  (+1.55%)   ], Directv [DTV  51.91     -0.19  (-0.36%)   ], Wells Fargo [WFC  33.96  ---  UNCH    ], IBM [IBM  198.29     -0.72  (-0.36%)   ], Liberty Media [LMCA  98.95     -0.34  (-0.34%)   ], and Lee Enterprises [LEE  1.33     0.02  (+1.53%)   ].

The total value of Berkshire's reported U.S. stock holdings slipped 1.3 percent to $74.3 billion as of June 30, compared to $75.3 billion.

The company's new filing does not say that any confidential information had been omitted.

ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS:

United Parcel Service, down 82 percent or $89 million. 
[UPS  76.18     0.03  (+0.04%)   ]
Visa, down 27 percent or $102 million.
[V  129.89     1.57  (+1.22%)   ]
CVS Caremark, down 25 percent or $79 million.
[CVS  44.12     -0.58  (-1.3%)   ]
Verisk Analytics, down 16 percent or $17 million.
[VRSK  49.02     0.29  (+0.6%)   ]
Dollar General, down 9 percent or $16 million.
[DG  52.31     -0.23  (-0.44%)   ]
US Bancorp, down 4 percent or $100 million.
[USB  33.02     -0.16  (-0.48%)   ]
ConocoPhillips, down 1 percent, or $13 million.
[COP  57.35     0.04  (+0.07%)   ]


2012年8月1日 星期三

IRR公式Office2010和2007算法不同

From: yeejiarn
發表於 2012-8-1 15:31

和大(1536)為何盈再表會出現ROE為1%,
預期報酬率卻為15% ?


From: mikeon
發表於 2012-8-1 17:04











跟宥聰桑比對的結果
可能是Office 2010和2007版本不同的問題

我的電腦是2010版
和大的IRR可以算-30%
故預期報酬率取-30%

2007版和大的IRR算不出來
改用EPSx12
所以答案不同


From: Joe(宥聰)
發表於 2012-8-1 17:16

把 AT17 儲存格改成 -30%
俗和貴價格就會跟 Michael 一樣
這是 2003,2007 版本上錯誤